Assessment of Iran Nuclear Programs By Janes

Janes does a great analysis of the nuclear programs in Iran and their violations of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). During his first term in office, Trump "tore up" the JCPOA agreement on March 8th, 2018 and reimposed the sanctions that had been lifted per the agreement. France, Germany, the UK, China, and Russia tried to maintain the agreement, but because of the "maximum pressure" sanctions by the USA Iran returned to enrichment.

We (and the world) would have been much better off keeping the JCPOA in place and punishing Iran for any violations. Instead, Israel and the USA carried out military strikes against Iran and Trump lied and said their program had been "obliterated." The attack did destroy part of their nuclear program, but it was far from being obliterated. Now, you have to pick which lie you want to believe: is the latest Iran war because of their nuclear program or is it to force regime change? Or is it both? Trump and Netanyahu don't really have a plan for what they're doing beyond carrying out military strikes and they don't have a plan for what comes next.

According to analysis by Janes (which I trust): Iran’s breakout time – the time required to produce weapons-grade uranium enough for one nuclear weapon – is about six to seven days. Iran can produce enough weapons-grade uranium for five to eight weapons in about one to two months. Iran is not yet known to be capable of using weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear weapon that can be mated with a delivery platform. The process of weaponization is very likely to take a significantly longer period.

They also report that there is no indication that Iran is pushing ahead with the weaponization component of any process towards a nuclear weapons capability.