An Autopsy of the USA (1776-2026): RIP The American Dream

It probably isn't news to anyone that Americans are really struggling, but our economy is now in a freefall and it is going to crash hard. People will often point to the stock market as a sign of good economic health, but the wealthiest 1% own 40% of stocks. The stock market has been buoyed by technology and artificial intelligence companies that are greatly overvalued. Just like the 1989 dot com crash, these companies have valuations and debts that will never be supported by their future sales. There is enough momentum to maybe keep those companies afloat for a few more years, but it is a bubble that will eventually pop. We should see a massive stock market correction in the very near future.

The USA has $38T in debt, gaining the fastest $1T since the pandemic. Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill” will nearly double the debt, at a time when our interest payments on the debt is approaching our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Twenty-two states are already in a recession. Consumers are also drowning in debt, and so car repossessions are rapidly increasing with a $1.66T auto debt crisis. The average price of a car is now $50,000. Average monthly payments for new vehicles exceed $750, with about one in five borrowers facing payments over $1,000 per month. Car insurance premiums have jumped 19% in the past year, and car repair costs are up 33% since 2020. An rapidly increasing percentage of borrowers are delinquent in their auto loans leading to repossession. Many car owners are “underwater” where they owe more than the car is worth. Student loan debts hit a record high of $1.65T with nearly 10% of those debt payments being more than 90 days overdue, and the delinquency problem is growing. Total household debt has reached $18.59T.

One-half of workers are relying on their debt just to buy the essentials, so we also have a $1T credit card debt crisis. The average credit card debt is $7,321 while the credit card rates just hit a 13 year high. Half of Americans have their paycheck gone in just 2 days, and many of the high-earners are living paycheck to paycheck. Electricity bills are up 11%. Foreclosures have surged 17%, as the housing market hits a 30 year low. Insurance rates have skyrocketing with some companies leaving entire states behind. In California, the companies fled because of the wildfire risk, and in Florida they fled because of the hurricanes and flooding risk. There is no affordable housing to be found, and the price of food has soared because of tariffs and inflation. Wages haven't even come close to keeping up with the rapid rise in inflation and cost of living. Many young people are having to put off marriage because they can't afford to start a family. People also can't afford their pets, so animal surrenders at the shelters have increased.

Health care costs have made medical care unobtainable by millions of Americans, and rural hospitals have been closing their doors. Doctors are no longer able to be recruited because of the $100,000 H1-B visa fee and crackdown on legal immigration. Prescription drug prices are too high and going up, ACA premiums rose 30%, and in some states by much more. Medical costs  now outpace inflation by 40%.

Our economy is in danger because many companies that have been around for decades are closing up shop. Even the large and profitable companies are laying off employees by the thousands. They've already passed on over half of the tariffs to the consumer, while trying to absorb the rest. In order to retain their profitability, companies either will have to pass all of it on the the consumer and/or greatly reduce their staff and investments in the future. And when prices go up, they rarely come back down. 81% of Gen X will rely on Social Security, and the experts say that it will be insolvent by 2033. The problem is much greater because of the immigration crackdown and our birth rate. Immigrants pay into the system and keep it afloat for the rest of us. Without a reversal of course, I think we'll see a social security crisis before 2033.

Farmers really got screwed over (but they overwhelming voted for it). The US bailed out Argentina by exchanging $40B with their pesos. That is an investment we'll likely never make back. Beef prices are up 16% this year, so Trump is ordering beef from Argentina to be imported. The price of bananas is up 5%. In the latest big “deal” Trump made with Xi, China has reduced the tariffs on some goods while keeping the tariff on imported soybeans at 16%. Meanwhile, this administration is spending $3B to bailout the farmers from a self-created crisis. Despite the bailout, 500,000 farm families are still facing bankruptcy. “Shrinkflation” has been happening across the board, as companies reduce the size of their packaging, or use deceptive packaging to make it seem like you are buying the same amount of product for the same price.

What is the government doing address these problems? Trump has remodeled the Lincoln bathroom, demolished the entire White House east wing to build a $300M ballroom, and is preparing to build a ridiculous arch in front of the Lincoln Memorial. DHS, police, and the military are way over-funded with most of the money going to private military contractors. Both parties have committed the sin of giving almost unlimited funds to the military industrial complex while the people are struggling to make ends meet. On Halloween, while millions of Americans were waiting in lines at the food pantry because of the suspension of SNAP benefits and the longest government shutdown in history, Trump held a “Great Gatsby” ball at Mar-a-Lago where they used the theme from a song from the movie that's called "A Little Party Never Killed Nobody".

The “American Dream” as we've always know it is completely dead now, and we have problems that will take many generations to resolve. Our current trajectory is simply not sustainable, and so major changes will have to be made. Who will be the courageous leaders who will guide us out of this mess? Only time will tell. Empires rise, and empires fall. By nearly every measure the USA is a failed nation-state. The current iteration of the American Empire and experiment in democracy lasted 250 years. Let's hope the next iteration is more stable, equitable, and democratic - but for now I pronounce the USA is dead and this blog post serves as its autopsy.